You don’t have to talk to many folks in public radio to sense a growing concern about the health of donor files at local stations.

That concern is well founded.

CDP’s data scientists have been looking at year-over-year trends for the public radio stations we track in the National Reference File (NRF), and the numbers are eye-opening.

From December 2020 to December 2021, radio membership files shrunk by an average of 3.5%, ending a 19-month stretch of positive year-over-year membership growth. Compare that to TV and joint icensee files which were up more than 3% in the same period, largely due to the success of Passport, PBS’s video streaming member benefit.

The major culprit in the declines was new donor acquisition which, on average, was down nearly 21%. Add to that the fact that the percentage of those new donors joining as sustainers has largely plateaued, and it’s a bit of a 1-2 punch. Two years ago, 27% of new donors joined as sustainers; that has only seen modest improvement, bumping up to 29%. Compare that to the TV and joint licensees we track, who have jumped from 27% to 34% during the same period.

Not only was there a low percentage of new sustainers, but it turns out the non-sustainer donors who joined were less committed than their predecessors with first year, non-sustainer retention dropping from 40% to 37%.

As concerning as these numbers are, there is some good news. Because radio has traditionally had a higher percentage of sustainers than TV, the impact of the steep decline in donor acquisition has been softened. And with most stations having enjoyed a strong year in high-dollar giving, membership revenues remained stable for most and up for some.

But still, the clock is ticking, and the natural attrition of existing sustainers and multi-year donors will leave stations that don’t address these issues feeling the financial pressure in the near future.  The decline in new donors has created a hole of missing donors in fundraising programs across the system that will be magnified as those existing sustainers and multi-year donors fall off the files. 

If the numbers I mentioned above seem all too familiar at your shop, there are a few immediate steps we recommend that can help.

Review Your Renewal Program

If you have a large number of sustainers on file, your digital and direct mail renewal efforts may have been left on autopilot and now find themselves in need of a tune-up. Is your copy relevant to the current state of affairs? Is your solicitation calendar and cadence maximizing opportunities? Are you under-soliciting?

Strengthen Your Digital-prospect Pipeline

Be sure you’re capturing email addresses from your website’s visitors via a highly visible email sign-up opportunity. If you’re thinking, “We have that,” it still never hurts to double-check how easy it is to access: If you can’t find it, it’s likely visitors to your site can’t either.

Be a Sustainer Retainer

Review your business practices around sustainer payment failures and ensure you’re reaching out to donors and/or have a self-service online portal to capture updated payment information as quickly as possible. If you haven’t already, develop sustainer payment info update spots for use on-air and in streaming session pre-rolls to remind donors who may have switched banks or gotten a new credit card to proactively update their information.

And if you see a spike in sustainer cancellations due to donors having financial concerns, have your customer service teams go into “saves mode” by suggesting a lower monthly amount instead of an outright cancellation. As a last resort, see if the donor will agree to a pause in their giving, resuming at an agreed upon future date.

Diversify Your Acquisition Channels

With many station finances still in good shape, now is not the time to cut back on acquisition. It’s the time to double down on acquiring new donors before the financial impact of today’s missing donors is fully felt.

View acquisition as an investment in the future health of your station and get to work diversifying your acquisition channels.  Historically, many stations have relied on on-air pledge as the primary source of new donors. Now they are paying the price as audience and donor behavior continue to evolve. The time has come to diversify acquisition channels to include paid search, social, retargeting, direct mail and, yes, door-to-door canvassing. Before you say, “Our station couldn’t take on canvassing,” think again. Think big and explore your options: You may be pleasantly surprised by what you discover.

Longer term, and depending how it’s structured, the NPR Network podcast subscription service may hold potential for significant file growth and may become a key driver of acquisition in the future.

Shore Up Major Gifts and Planned Giving

As mentioned earlier, higher-level donors are performing well, insulating station budgets from the revenue volatility we’re seeing at lower levels. Now is the time to invest in the area of major gifts and planned giving to ensure near-term and long-term financial success. Developing new relationships and strengthening existing connections with prospects and major donors can have a big impact on a station’s bottom line.

For planned giving, tools like FreeWill can jumpstart your station’s program with near-instant results and relatively little effort.

So What’s Next?

CDP’s data scientists are now crunching Q1 data for 2022. Will world events that are on everyone’s minds drive an increase in listenership and, subsequently, giving? How will late winter/early spring on-air drives fare? We’ll be tracking this and more and will keep you updated in future blog posts.